So Far, So Good.

Solid U.S. economic growth, an improving global backdrop and high expectations for approaching policy rate cuts are sustaining the risk-on phase and spurring pockets of speculative fever. Hopes for a Goldilocks outcome will persist until an economic roadblock emerges. Global risk asset markets have soared this year, underscoring that liquidity conditions are still plentiful. The […]

Continued Hope for a Soft Landing

The U.S. economy avoided a much-anticipated recession in 2023 and made significant progress toward a soft landing. The key surprise was much stronger-than-expected economic growth as the labor market continued to rebalance and inflation continued to fall. In the U.S. and across many parts of the world, inflation declined, approaching but not reaching central bank […]

It’s Always Darkest Before the Light.

An oversold condition in the bond market and then a war in the Middle East two weekends ago have allowed bond yields to ease, providing yet another reprieve for fixed income investors. Many investors have stated that rising bond yields will do the work for the Fed and allow it to stand pat. The Fed […]

Soft or Hard Landing?

A soft inflation report last week halted the upward grind in government bond yields that were on the verge of setting new cycle highs. The global economic expansion, while slowing, certainly continues, probably making bond yield easing limited/temporary. Such market action is working at cross-purposes to central banks’ desire to slow growth and engineer some […]